Monitor the Results
I knew a sports gambling Boom would begin in 2018 after the favorable Supreme Court Ruling. To separate myself from all the Con Men in this industry, that Fall I started tweeting all my NFL picks before or at kickoff. In 2018 my record was 28-21, in 2019 I had the worst year in my career with a 27-39 record, 2020 no picks Covid, 2021 small loser, 2022 I quit after two months with a 15-13 record. So yes, I'm one of the few that is actually admitting to a losing record picking games on twitter!
Making money by betting on games has become very difficult. The markets are very efficient because of the way sportsbooks like Circa adjust their Lines after they take bets from sharp bettors. I've now moved to Prop betting.
Here is a list of some Prop bets that existed in the past or I actually bet myself.
SuperBowl February 2019 LA Rams vs NE Patriots. At South Point in Vegas if you bet on LAR to score exactly 3 points you were getting 400-1. So someone bet $250 and won 100K when the LAR lost 13-3. Stupid me it wasn't me, but I was in Vegas at the time but I didn't bother to check because I didn't think a Book could be that wrong. Now Props in the SB on the number 3 pay around 100-1.
PGA 2021. After round 1 Phil Mickelson was in 3rd place and William Hill in Illinois was paying 85-1 so I correctly risked $100. Three days later there's $8,500 more dollars in my account with the win. What a great simple risk/reward bet that was. Of course now I'm pissed I didn't bet more money. In the month after I lost around 2K betting on other golf tournaments and now I only pay attention to the Majors.
2021 SuperBowl KC vs Tampa. The big toe of Mahomes was not 100% plus the league was doing Covid testing before the game. I figured with these two high variance issues, I decided to bet on all the low numbers against KC. I risked $1,000 by betting $100 on each 0,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10. KC scored exactly 9 points and I won $15,000 at Horseshoe Hammond sportsbook.
In the same S.B., I also bet $300 at Rivers/Kambi getting 15-1 that Mahomes does not throw a TD in the SuperBowl that paid $4,500. After I placed the bet the Odds went down to 12-1. That's the problem with Props.
Check my tweets on the day after the Super Bowl and you'll see the winning tickets.
Spring 2021; There were Rumors that Aaron Rodgers was gonna retire so I bet 10K on Minnesota to win the division at +300. I figured if he doesn't retire it's a fair bet and if he does I'm plus EV. He didn't retire and I lose 10K.
August 2021. Pointsbet was offering 33-1 that Josh Rosen takes the first snap of the regular season for the SF 49ers so I bet $1,000. This bet received some national attention. I figured Jimmy J gets hurt or traded in the pre-season and Trey Lance isn't ready yet so Josh starts week 1. To bad my plan didn't work as Rosen was traded before the season even started!
Spring 2022. Most sportsbooks in the country had Chicago Bears win Total at 6.5 but Rivers/Kambi near O'Hare had 7.0 -121 Under. I knew the Bears were awful on both Lines, and they had just one average WR, and I wasn't impressed with Justin Fields. After they made a few phone calls they took my 5K bet UNDER 7.0 which is only a loser if they win 8 games. I also bet many thousands UNDER 6.5 and 6.0.
I also bet 1K at 10-1 that the Bears would score the least points in the league and 1K at 25-1 that the Bears would give up the most points in the league. The 25-1 was a winner for $25,000. Rivers/kambi also offered something called "Bands" it was +175 that the Bears win exactly 3,4 or 5 games. I pounded that bet several times and won about $10,000 on that.
I tweeted a picture of all winning Bears UNDER bets. Yes winning on Props can be this easy!
I hope you enjoyed some perfect examples of how sportsbooks make mistakes with these Props, or you can just outthink them.