# Cost

When I analyze a subject in great detail I'll do it on this page. Just ignore the word COST. Web sites are "tricky", so I don't want to risk changing the layout.

On Saturday February 4, I returned from vacation and started analyzing Super Bowl Props in great detail. The website of Rivers/Kambi had the most Props and they were displayed in a very simple way, so they got first crack at my business.

Saturday Night I bet three different Props for $1,000 each, and I'll show proof after the game. The Props were: Will the First quarter end in a TIE +370, the number of players that throw at least one pass OVER 2.5 +140. And will the same number of points be scored in the second half as the first half TIE +2250. Those first two Props are just a feel that I obviously think is correct. The third one is math and estimation.

On the third one my calculation is there's a 70% chance there's a "normal" amount of points scored in the first half like 20,21,23,24,26,27,28,30. And I also think there's the same 70% chance of these "normal" scores happening in the second half. So take 70% X 70% and you get a 49% chance of both halfs having these normal scores. Now take 49% and divide it by the 8 different scores and you get about 6% of one of these "normal" total points happening in both halfs.

Now take the chances of a 'unusual" 30% event happening in both halfs. Go with low and high numbers like 6,7,9,10,13,14,16, 17,19, 22,25,29,31,33,34,35,36,37. What are the chances of a 30% event happening twice? 30% X 30% = 9%. What's 9% divided by the 18 different numbers becomes about .5% chance of me winning this way.

According to my math estimates, I figure there's a 6.5% chance I win this bet. 6% when both halfs have the same "normal" score and .5% when they have the same "unusual" scores.

I was able to bet $43 ten times at the Kiosk at +2500, and $570 at the window at +2000.

Good Luck on Sunday and I hope you enjoyed seeing how my great mind thinks!